Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, including Jakib Media. Each week, he will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going.
NFL Week 8
Washington Commanders (4-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-0), 8:00 p.m. Monday
The Line: Eagles minus-11/Total: 44
What is the line telling you: The Eagles are coming into this NFC East Division matchup extremely healthy and the Vegas point spread is a clear indicator of that, when the Eagles opened up 11-point home favorites over the Washington Commanders with the combined total set at 44 points. So far, there’s been no movement in the market on either the side or total. Last time out, the Eagles’ offense blew the doors off the Commanders, 24-8, in Washington. DeVonta Smith had eight catches for 169 yards and a TD. A.J. Brown went for 5 for 85 yards and a TD. But things have changed for the Commanders’ defense recently.
In the first four weeks of the season, Washington’s defense was giving up an average of almost 27 ppg compared to just 16 ppg over their last four contests. The Commanders’ offensive line also looks like it has improved, allowing just six sacks over the last three games, compared to the 17 sacks they allowed over the previous four matchups. With Chase Young looking to return this week, and the Commanders’ defense playing much better over recent play ranking 9th in dropback EPA, and fifth in rush EPA.
This time around, the game should be closer.
Bottom line: The sharp money is on the Commanders plus-11. This is the second time around against a divisional opponent, and after starting off the season 1-4, Washington has been playing better football, having won three of their last four games.
Minnesota Vikings (7-1) at Buffalo Bills (6-2), 1:00 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Bills minus-3.5/Total: 42
What is the line telling you: The Vikings come into this game 7-1. With news that Josh Allen may not be playing, this line is down to 3.5. When or if the news does drop that Allen is out and Case Keenum is in, we should see this line go down further. If you took Minnesota early, you’re in a great spot with the ability to hedge, as Minnesota has played in six-straight one score games. Whether Allen suits up or not, this should be another close game. This Bills is still good enough to compete with Keenum under center. The game is gonna come down to turnovers. If Keenum takes care of the football, the Bills can win this game, and vice versa for Kirk Cousins.
Bottom line: The smart money likes the Vikings plus-3.5.
Cleveland Browns (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3), 1:00 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Dolphins minus-3.5/Total: 42.5
What is the line telling you: The Browns are coming off a bye week after they stunned the Bengals on Monday Night Football. This team could easily have five or six wins if it didn’t get in its own way, but they sit here at 3-5 heading to Miami to play a Dolphins’ offense that is hitting on all cylinders. The Miami defense, however, is doing the complete opposite, as they’ve been torched by Chicago and Detroit in back-to-back weeks. You take into account the Browns have a two-headed monster in the run game, and this game should be another tight contest where Miami must score points to win. The key for Cleveland is to run the ball early, establish time of possession and keep Miami’s offense off the field. The Browns do that and they can pull off the upset at Miami this weekend.
Bottom line: The smart money likes the Browns plus-3.5.
The Philly Godfather can be followed on Twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.
