Jalen Hurts by the Numbers: Pass Chart Breakdown Exposes the OC Dilemma

Jalen Hurts by the Numbers: Sileo's Pass Chart Breakdown Exposes the Eagles' OC Dilemma

On Wednesday's National Football Show, the analysis conducted what amounted to a live scouting session on Jalen Hurts — pulling up pass charts, completion rates, and QB ratings by zone to build a real-time offensive coordinator profile. The exercise was designed to answer one question: what kind of play-caller can actually succeed with this quarterback?

The numbers painted a stark picture.

The Pros: What Hurts Does Well

Sileo identified four genuine strengths in Hurts' game:

Dual-threat ability — Though Sileo noted it has "diminished a bit the last two years," Hurts' rushing production still dwarfs most quarterbacks. Sileo pointed out that Hurts has more career rushing yards than Patrick Mahomes has accumulated across nine seasons, adding: "When a guy like Hurts was running for 750 yards and 800 yards, I don't think 200 yards is dual threat" — dismissing comparisons to Mahomes as a true dual-threat.

Ball protection — The Eagles have made "don't turn the ball over" the organizational mandate, and Hurts has complied. Sileo argued this isn't entirely a positive, however: "If you go to the quarterback and say don't turn the ball over, why would you call deep passes?"

Deep ball — Hurts throws a "pretty decent deep ball," with a 66.7% completion rate on passes of 31-plus yards in 2025 and solid numbers at the 21-30 yard range.

Pressure performance — Hurts has shown an ability to elevate in big moments, performing well under defensive pressure.

The Cons: Where the Charts Get Ugly

Sileo then turned to the pass charts, and the data was damning:

Middle-of-field avoidance — Hurts posted a 52 QB rating on throws of 20-plus yards to the middle of the field, and a 60 QB rating on shorter middle throws of around 5 yards. At the line of scrimmage, his rating ballooned to 116 — but anything requiring him to throw between the hashes with depth was a liability.

Zero middle-field passes in final two games — Sileo counted every throw from Hurts' last two games of the season. In his 27-of-35, 264-yard, 3-TD performance, "every single pass was to the right under and behind the line of scrimmage, and there were five passes to the left." In the 12-of-23, 190-yard game: seven passes right, six left, zero across the middle.

Limited progression reads — "Doesn't progression read very well. Doesn't process. Predictable in the passing game," Sileo listed. This was echoed by co-host Xander Krause, who acknowledged some days he thinks Hurts is great and other days he's "like, what the..."

Pocket awareness issues — Hurts "leaves the pocket too soon" and "drops his head when he leaves the pocket," limiting his ability to find receivers downfield on scramble plays.

The Completion Rate Mirage

Hurts' situational passing numbers for 2025 revealed a quarterback whose efficiency drops off a cliff with distance:

1-10 yards: 68.8% completion

11-20 yards: 68.4% completion

21-30 yards: 52.0% completion

31+ yards: 66.7% completion

"And they were low numbers," Sileo noted, referencing the overall volume. The Eagles ranked 25th in passing in 2025 — while fielding two 1,000-yard receivers. "How can you have two 1,000-yard receivers and have such a poor offensive attack and passing game?" Sileo asked. "I've never seen anything like it."

What This Means for the OC Search

Sileo used the profile to explain why the coordinator search has been so difficult. "What kind of passing attack do you have here if you're a coordinator? Throw into the Y and the Z. Maybe a couple tight end passes. You don't throw to your backs all that much. Where's your screen game? They don't have an intermediate checkdown game. That's because the quarterback's not good at it."

He identified four coaches whose backgrounds would fit: Brian Daboll (dual-threat experience with Josh Allen), Greg Roman (designed run-heavy offenses for Lamar Jackson), Cliff Kingsbury, and Jim Bob Cooter. But all four are off the market.

The scouting report on AJ Brown compounds the problem. "When you read AJ Brown's scouting report, it said he doesn't play well in the slot, middle of the field," Sileo noted. Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith operates primarily on the numbers as well. Neither receiver offers the versatility to exploit the middle of the field the way tight ends and slot receivers do in the league's most successful passing attacks.

Sileo drew a direct contrast with the championship-winning formula: "Brady won Super Bowls with checkdowns and passes to tight ends across the middle of the field. Andy Reid doesn't really have a predominant wideout in his offense ever. He has a tight end that's a predominant player." Between the Belichick and Reid dynasties, those quarterbacks have won 11 Super Bowls with that style.

The conclusion was inescapable: the Eagles need an OC who can work within Hurts' limitations, but the profile is so narrow that it eliminates most of the experienced candidates. And the inexperienced ones? "If you hire another guy that has no experience in play calling, here we are again," Sileo warned. "You haven't moved the needle."