Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, including Jakib Media. Each week, he will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going.
NFL Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4), 4:25 p.m. Saturday
The Line: Cowboys minus-4.5/Total: 47.5
What is the line telling you:
The Birds head to Dallas without MVP candidate Jalen Hurts with the line opened as Dallas minus-1.5 favorites. It moved all the way to minus-6, now back to minus-4.5 since the news of Hurts came out. Gardner Minshew makes his first start of the season. He made two appearances last season and looked sharp in both outings. Looking at his career stats, you would say Minshew is a starting NFL quarterback. He’s thrown for 41 touchdowns and has 12 interceptions in his career, which indicates this guy is capable of playing at a high level. And you factor in that he has a plethora of weapons, a great running game and offensive line, all he has to do is take care of the football.
Now the Cowboys are in a revenge spot here, losing to the Eagles earlier in the year without Dak Prescott. But if we look at Dak, he’s currently playing some of the worst football of his career in this recent stretch, where he’s thrown 10 interceptions over his last 7 games.
Bottom line: Dallas has a great roster and team, but if there’s one weakness, it’s stopping the run. And that’s exactly where the Eagles excel. Now it’s obviously a different dynamic when Hurts is playing but expect to win the line of scrimmage and be able to utilize the play action and get the ball to these playmakers in space. Dallas at minus-1.5 was a great move, but the Eagles are the better team, and it’s hard to pass them up at plus-4 or better. If Minshew doesn’t turn the ball over, and the Eagles can establish a consistent run game, they should be able to cover this number.
Seattle Seahawks (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3), 1:00 p.m. Saturday
The Line: Chiefs minus-10/Total: 49
What is the line telling you:
The Chiefs opened up as 10-point home favorites over the Seahawks with a combined total set at 49 and surprisingly there’s been no movement on the side or total, even though weather experts are predicting this to be one of the coldest games of the year. This game is huge for the Seahawks because they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games and are now in jeopardy of not making the playoffs with the Lions and Packers on their tails for that final spot in the NFC. The problem is they’re facing a KC team that looks like they’re backfiring on all cylinders with an 11-3 overall record and plus-92 point differential on the season. Then add the fact that the Seahawks starting strong safety Ryan Neal, along with defensive tackle Al Woods are out, it could be a long day for a defense that already ranked 24th in the league in opponent yards per play.
Bottom line: If you like prop bets, Travis Kelce should have a big day, and the KC Chiefs should be able to cover this 10-point spread even in bad weather.
New York Giants (8-5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (11-3), 1:00 p.m. Saturday
The Line: Vikings minus-4/Total: 48
What is the line telling you:
This line originally opened up with the Vikings being minus-3.5-point home favorites over the Giants. There was some early market manipulation on New York that hit the screen and forced this line down to that key number of 3, before some real sharp money unloaded on the Vikings and pushed it back to where it currently stands, with Minnesota being a 4-point favorite. The total on the game is painted 48 everywhere.
This Giants team is one of the luckiest teams that’s been around in a while, and we attribute a portion of that to good coaching. But eventually, luck runs out. If you look at the box score in the last five Giants wins, they have had fewer total yards and first downs in every game, but found a way to come out victorious. As anyone knows, it’s almost impossible to keep losing the box score and winning games.
The Giants have had major problems on their offensive line this year protecting their quarterback, ranking No. 28 in pass protection, and with that comes an offense that ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play. On the defensive side of the ball, the Giants are dead last stopping the run ranked 32nd in opponent yards per rush attempt and 28th in opponent yards per play.
Bottom line: Take the Vikings minus-4.
The Philly Godfather can be followed on Twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.
