Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, including Jakib Media. Each week, he will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going.
NFL Week 1
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions, 1:00 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Eagles minus-4/Total: 48.5
What is the line telling you: This game opened up with the Eagles as road favorites laying four points and we really haven’t seen any movement on the market as of yet. The total, on the other hand, has seen a big 2-point adjustment towards the over, after opening up at 46.5. There was some smart money early at 46.5, but taking the over at 48.5, I wouldn’t suggest it. When it comes to a side, we know the Lions are a real feisty team with no quit in them, but last year the Eagles blew them out, 44-6, and with the upgrades the Eagles made to their roster this year far outweigh what the Lions have done in the offseason. The Eagles have too many weapons for the Lions to stay close with a spread of 4 points. With all of the hoopla about the Eagles, it all starts in Week 1 with a huge win and a statement to the rest of the league.
Bottom line: The smart money likes the Eagles minus-4.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders, 1:00 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Commanders minus-3/Total: 44
What is the line telling you: The line originally opened up at 4.5 and 4, and the smart money jumped in on the Jags right away, lowering that to 3. There are still a couple of books out there that have the Jags getting 4. Make sure you have to buy it at 3 for the Jags. This game is a coinflip. If you look at the projected win totals set by Vegas, they have the Washington only 1.5 games higher at 8, with the Jags at 6.5. They’re telling you that if this game was played on a neutral field, this game would be a pick ’em. It’s the first week of the season and the dogs have historically done well in Week 1. Then you have the fact that road underdogs who missed the playoffs the previous season have gone 73-46 against the spread in Week 1 of the new season. That fact alone tells you the Jags have a great chance of covering the spread. I like Doug Pedersen here and I think Trevor Lawrence gets better this year as well.
Bottom line: The smart money likes the Jags plus-3.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks, 8:20 p.m. Monday
The Line: Broncos minus-6.5/Total: 44.5
What is the line telling you: I took this game back in the early summer with the Broncos minus-4. I also took it on the money line. Russell Wilson is back on a team that could win the Super Bowl. Add the fact that all the bulletin board stuff that the Seahawks have been saying about Russell Wilson the last couple of weeks, I think this game could be a bloodbath. You have two teams heading in polar opposite directions. You have the Seahawks win total at 5.5, which 4.5 games lower than the Broncos’ win total, which is set at 10 by Vegas. Seattle had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year against the pass, and they didn’t get any better in the offseason. I think Russell Wilson is going to tear them apart.
Bottom line: The smart money is on the Broncos minus-6.
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.
